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Freak/Rogue Wave Prediction

Introduction †

Freak wave is sometimes called as Rogue wave and gives massive impact to ocean structure, oil plathome, ship and so on. However, occurrence mechanisms, probability are still unknown. This project had started early 1990 and still expanding to the future. The targets of this project are

  1. Numerical modeling of freak wave generation
  2. Stastical modeling of freak wave occurence
  3. Collect the evidence of freak wave appearence
  4. Prediction of freak wave occurence

Specially, the observed data of freak wave a few. We will focus on these topics.

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Present and Past Collaborators †

  • Peter A.E.M. Janssen, ECMWF
  • Miguel Onorato, University of Trino
  • Paul Liu, Great Lake Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA
  • Norihiko Nagai, PARI,　JAPAN
  • Tetsuya Hiraishi, PARI,　JAPAN
  • Koji Kawaguchi, PARI,　JAPAN
  • Hiroaki Kashima, PARI,　JAPAN
  • Takashi Yasuda, Gifu University, Japan
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Period †

This project has been started 1992 and supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

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Project Results †

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References †

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Journal Papers †

  1. Mori, N., M. Onorato, P.A.E.M. Janssen, A.R. Osborne and M. Serio (2007) On the extreme statistics of long crested deep water waves: Theory and experiments, Journal of Geophysical Research, Ocean, American Geophysical Union, doi:10.1029/2006JC004024.
  2. Mori, N. and P.A.E.M. Janssen (2006) On kurtosis and occurrence probability of freak waves, Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 7, pages 1471-1483.
  3. Mori, N. (2004) Occurrence probability of freak wave in nonlinear wave field, Ocean Engineering, Elsevier, vol.31/2 pp. 165-175.
  4. Mori, N., P. Liu and T. Yasuda (2002) Analysis of freak wave measurements in the Sea of Japan, Ocean Engineering, Elsevier, vol.29/11, pp. 1399-1414.
  5. Mori, N. and T. Yasuda (2002) Effects of high-order nonlinear wave-wave interactions on gravity waves, Ocean Engineering, Elsevier, vol .29/10 pp 1233-1245.
  6. Mori, N. and T. Yasuda (2002) A weakly non-Gaussian model of wave height distribution for random wave train, Ocean Engineering, Elsevier, vol. 29/10 pp 1219-1231.
  7. Yasuda, T. and N. Mori (1997) Roles of sideband instability and mode coupling in forming a water wave chaos, Wave Motion, Elsevier, vol.26, No.2, pp.163-185.
  8. Yasuda, T. and N. Mori (1997) Occurrence properties of giant freak waves the sea area around Japan, Journal of Waterway, Port, Coast and Ocean Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, vol.123, No.4, pp.209-213.
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Conference Proceedings †

  1. Mori N., P.A.E.M. Janssen and M. Onorato (2007) Freak wave prediction from spectra, 10th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting, CD-ROM, 13p.
  2. Janssen, Peter A.E.M., N. Mori and M. Onorato (2007) Extension of the ECMWF freak wave warning system to 2 dimensional propagation, 10th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting.
  3. Mori, N. (2006) Freak wave prediction from directional spectra, Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, pp.714-725.
  4. Mori, N. and P.A.E.M. Janssen (2004) Dependence of freak wave occurrence on kurtosis, Proceedings of Rogue Waves 2004, in press.
  5. Mori, N. and T.Yasuda (2000) Effects of high order nonlinearity on random waves', Rouge Waves 2000, Brest, France, pp.229-244.
  6. Liu, P. and N. Mori (2000) Characterizing freak waves with wavelet transform analysis', Rouge Waves 2000, Brest, France, pp.151-156.
  7. Mori, N. and T.Yasuda (2000) Maximum wave height distributions of nonlinear narrow banded random waves, International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE) 2000, Vol.3, pp.9-13.
  8. Mori, N., T.Yasuda and S.Nakayama (2000) Statistical properties of freak waves observed in the Sea of Japan, International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE) 2000, Vol.3, pp.109-115.
  9. Liu, P. and N. Mori. (2000) A wavelet transform analysis of freak waves in the ocean, Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Sydney, pp.1092-1098
  10. Liu, P. and N. Mori (1999) A wavelet transform analysis of freak waves in the ocean, International Water Resources Engineering Conference, ASCE, Seattle, WA. CDROM.
  11. Yasuda, T. and N.Mori and S.Nakayama(1997) Characteristics of giant freak waves observed in the Sea of Japan, WAVES'97, Virginia, USA, vol.1,482-495.
  12. Mori, N. and T.Yasuda (1997) Weakly non-Gaussian model of wave height distribution for random wave train, Proc. Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering: OMAE 1997, Yokohama, vol.1, pp.99-104.
  13. Mori, N. and T.Yasuda (1996) Weakly non-Gaussian model of wave height distribution for random waves, Proc. of the 25th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Orlando, pp.850-863.
  14. Yasuda, T. and N.Mori (1996) Modulations in unidirectional nonlinear waves having narrow to broad banded spectra, Proceedings of the Symposium"The Air-Sea Interface", Marseilles, France, (Eds. M.A.Donelan, W.H.Hui, and W.J.Plant), University of Miami, pp.139-146.
  15. Yasuda, T., N.Mori, and S.Nakayama (1994) Freak wave kinematics in unidirectional deep water waves, Proceedings of the 4th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE), Osaka, vol.3, pp.43-50.
  16. Yasuda, T. and N.Mori (1993) High order nonlinear effects on deep-water random wave trains, International Symposium: Waves-Physical and Numerical Modelling, Vancouver, vol.2, pp.823-832.
  17. Yasuda, T, N.Mori and K.Ito (1992) Freak waves in a unidirectional wave train and their kinematics, Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Venice, pp.751-764, 1993.
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Link †