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References of Ensemble Prediction System

Books

  • Daniel S. Wilks, Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic Press, 1995, 464p.

ECMWF documents

ECMWF Newsletter

  • ECMWF Newsletter 92 - Autumn 2001
    • Weather risk management with the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
  • ECMWF Newsletter 88 - Summer/Autumn 2000
    • The furure of ensemble prediction
  • ECMWF Newsletter 90 - Spring 2001
    • Changes to the operational forecasting syste
    • The new 80-km high-resolution ECMWF EPS
  • ECMWF Newsletter 80 - Summer 1998
    • Progress with wind-wave interaction
    • Obtaining economic value from the EPS
  • ECMWF Newsletter 74 - Winter 1996/97
    • Changes to the operational forecasting system
    • The enhanced high-resolution Ensemble Prediction System
    • Skating on EPS
  • ECMWF Newsletter 72 - Spring/Summer 1996
    • Verification of the Ensemble Prediction System

ECMWF Technical Memorandam

1991-2000: available in my personal library

  • volume 188
    • T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet and J. Tribbia, Ensemble prediction, July 1992
  • 202
    • F. Molteni, R. Buizza, T.N. Palmer and T. Petroliagis, The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: methodology and validation, August 1994
  • 245
    • R. Buizza, T. Petroliagis, T. Palmer, J. Barkmeijer, M. Hamrud, A. Hollingsworth, A. Simmons and N. Wedi, Impact of model resolution and ensemble size of the performance of an ensemble prediction system, January 1998
  • 246 / out of print
    • R. Buizza and T. Palmer, Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. January 1998
  • 248
    • R. Buizza and A. Hollingsworth, Probability precipitation prediction using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, February 1998
  • 262
    • D.S Richardson, Skill and relative value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, November 1998
  • 279
    • R. Buizza, M. Miller and T.N. Palmer, Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, April 1999
  • 280
    • R. Buizza, J. Barkmeijer, T. N. Palmer, and D. S. Richardson, Current status and future developments of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, May 1999
  • 323
    • R. Buizza, Forecasting system performance in summer 1999. Part 3: EPS, September 2000

Since 2000-: available thourgh the web

  • R Buizza and A Hollingsworth, Storm Prediction over Europe using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, 356, January 2002
  • R. Buizza and P. Chessa, Prediction of the US storm of 24-26 January 2000 with the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, 355, January 2002
  • C. Marsigli, A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, T, Paccagnella, S. Tibaldi, F. Molteni and R. Buizza, A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part 2: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events, 338, May 2001
  • F. Molteni, R. Buizza, C. Marsigli, A. Montani, F. Nerozzi and T. Paccagnella, A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part 1: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments, 337, May 2001
  • L.A. Smith, M.S. Roulston and J. von Hardenberg, End to end ensemble forecasting: Towards evaluating the economic value of the Ensemble Prediction System, 336, March 2001
  • P.A. Chessa Classifications and validation of the ECMWF EPS perturbed forecasts using pre-defined weather regimes, 316, October 2000
  • J.W. Taylor and R. Buizza, Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting, 312, September 2000
  • S.L. Mullen and R. Buizza, Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, 307, June 2000

Ensemble Prediction searched by American Meteorological Society online

  • Steven Tracton, M., Eugenia Kalnay, 1993: Operational Ensemble Prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical Aspects. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 379?400.
  • Moore, Andrew M., 1999: The Dynamics of Error Growth and Predictability in a Model of the Gulf Stream. Part II: Ensemble Prediction. Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 762?778.
  • Wilson, Laurence J., William R. Burrows, Andreas Lanzinger, 1999: A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 127, No. 6, pp. 956?970.
  • Chessa, Piero A., Francois Lalaurette, 2001: Verification of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Forecasts: A Study of Large-Scale Patterns. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 611?619.
  • Mullen, Steven L., Roberto Buizza, 2002: The Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 173?191.
  • Houtekamer, P.L., Jacques Derome, 1995: Methods for Ensemble Prediction. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2181?2196.
  • Buizza, R., A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, A. Ghelli, 1999: Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 168?189.
  • Juras, Josip, 2000: Comments on “Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System”. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 365-366.
  • Wilson, Laurence J., 2000: Comments on “Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System”. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 361?364.
  • Hersbach, Hans, 2000: Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 559?570.